Forecasting The Demand for Gold in India: An Analysis of Historical Time-Series Data
Ajay Shukla1, Shrasty Katiyar2
1Ajay Shukla, Professor, Shri Jai Narain Misra Post Graduate College University of Lucknow (U.P), India.
2Shrasty Katiyar, Research Scholar, University of Lucknow (U.P), India.
Manuscript received on 19 March 2023 | Revised Manuscript received on 28 March 2023 | Manuscript Accepted on 15 April 2023 | Manuscript published on 30 April 2023 | PP: 7-10 | Volume-9 Issue-8, April 2023 | Retrieval Number: 100.1/ijmh.H1597049823 | DOI: 10.35940/ijmh.H1597.049823
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© The Authors. Published By: Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: Gold has been an integral part of Indian culture and tradition for centuries. India is one of the largest consumers and importers of gold in the world, with gold demand primarily driven by weddings, festivals and religious ceremonies. In recent years, gold has also emerged as an investment asset class with people investing in gold for long-term gain and to hedge against inflation. Gold is also considered a safe-haven asset and is often used as a store of value during periods of economic and political uncertainty. Almost all central banks hold gold as a crucial part of their foreign exchange reserves. Hence, forecasting the demand for gold becomes essential for making informed investment decisions and for managing reserves by institutions. This study aims to forecast the demand for gold based on the recent trends and patterns of gold demand in India over the last five years (2017- 2021). The researcher analysed historical data on gold from various sources and examined the trends over time. The study employed the linear trend analysis method to derive a linear equation that predicted future gold demand based on historical trends in gold demand. The results obtained through this research can be applied by investors, goldsmiths, and the government in various contexts, including investment and commodity trading, to inform their decisions and strategies.
Keywords: Gold, Demand, Forecast, Trend & Patterns, Linear Trend Analysis, India.
Scope of the Article: Economy